The Myth Of The Bad Economy
I am really trying my best to not be mean to people, and since first reading this post Monday, I have done a pretty good job of keeping quiet. But the post is so utterly ridiculous that I can’t hold back any longer.
The heading on Jackson’s post is “Trying Not to Panic”. He begins the post with these words.
The economy is in the shitter.
What an incredibly stupid thing to say. Presently, the unemployment rate is 5%. For all of you who get your economic news from Vanity Fair, that is what is called “full employment”. The Gross Domestic Product grew at a rate of 4.9% in the third quarter. The fourth quarter figures are not in yet, but nobody is expecting there to be negative growth. No they aren’t expecting a booming 4.9, which is too high. The economy actually needs to cool down, due to inflation worries. The inflation rate for December, by the way, was 4.08%, a trend upward but still not bad by historical standards. Knowing all of these truths, what would cause Jackson to make such a stupid statement?
The housing market sucks and way too much of the avg person’s net worth is tied up in it.
Nonsense! No housing isn’t booming like it was a couple of years ago, but the market is a long way from sucking. Last year, according to the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, was the fourth best year ever for the Nashville market. Some markets are experiencing larger declines, but that is what happens when you have too much inventory. Its called economics and it isn’t the end of the world, nor is it anybody’s fault. In a few months things will level out again and the sky will still be in place.
My generation has never seen anything like this before. As long as I have been working, the unemployment rate has been low. As long as I have had credit, interest rates have been low. As long as I have had my own place purchasing was a better idea than renting. As long as I have been on a salary it has gone up from new jobs taking advantage of last year’s experience.
What universe is this guy living in? The unemployment rate is low. Interest rates are really low. Purchasing is still a better idea than renting. Anybody that tells you differently is either an idiot, or an apartment owner. The standard of living for most people has been greatly increasing for the last twenty five years. Since Jackson mentioned “his generation”, let me remind him of what it was like prior to his birth, back when the economic policies that he favors ruled the day. Maybe he should go back and see what times were like during the Carter administration.
I am trying not to panic, but the looming financial hard times kinda scare the shit out of me. I have never experienced anything like this. However, I do remember stories about long lines to buy bread in Russia.
Oh Lord. Jackson do you remember from history class, what type of economic system was practiced in Russia? Was it socialism, Jackson?
Last month marked the 52nd consecutive month of job growth, the longest period of uninterrupted job growth ever recorded. Is the middle class shrinking? Of course it is, but not because people are going down the ladder. Actually, the percentage of people making above $100,000 has doubled, while the percentage earning less than $30,000 is unchanged.
This whole idea of a bad economy is a myth. It’s complete nonsense. We may very well be headed for a downturn, but we certainly aren’t there yet. To say that we are, reveals an amazing level of economic stupidity.
I wish I could remember where I heard this stellar advice…
If you want to know the true state of the economy, go to a fast food restaurant. If the service is bad and the cashier is surly and can’t give correct change, the economy is good. How do you figure?
When the economy is good, this is the best worker the restaurant can get at the wage they are paying.
The economy must be really good in Kingston Springs and Bellevue. Not only is the service at MacDonalds bad, but they aren’t even nice. The workers remind me of the guys in the movie Clerks. “This job would be fine if it were not for the stupid customers.”
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There are some troublesome indicators….but Democrats need to get a grasp on reality. It’s not awful. The Clinton slowdown of 2000-2001 was potentially much more problematic.
I believe I saw some synapse-challenged blogger comparing things to the Great Depression this week. Please.
Not that you are biased or anything, what, with being a realtor and all.
Nathan is right, there are some troublesome indicators. Look at retail numbers. Look at housing prices falling. The prediction from Merrill Lynch is that housing values will fall 20% in 2008. So if you buy a house today you will lose 20% in the first year. How is that a good time to buy a house?
Debt has been propping up the economy and it has been done based on inflated real estate values. A fair amount of consumer debt is based on “home equity” that is about to disappear.
“This whole idea of a bad economy is a myth. It’s complete nonsense. We may very well be headed for a downturn, but we certainly aren’t there yet. To say that we are, reveals an amazing level of economic stupidity.”
A recession can only be identified months after it has started. I am just saying it has started. Care to make a wager on it? Should be an easy bet to make what with my “economic stupidity” and all.
I am actually surprised you are not more in agreement with what I have been saying. It is time for fiscal responsibility by consumers and the government. The culture of debt is the problem.
20%? That is insane. Jackson, the further values drop though, the better a time it is to buy. Remember buy low, buy low.
You are right about home equity loans, with the money being spent in the economy.
Lets just check back on all of this a year from now. There will be a slowdown, but it will be a soft landing.
Yeah, I hope it is a soft landing.
Also, I am in complete agreement with you about buying low. Hell, after the 20% drop you should give me a call since I will likely be in the market for some property. But, in anticipation of a 20% drop there is no way I would buy right now. The trick is to buy at the bottom, not on the way down.
Damn, after being an asshole to you, I think I might have lost a potential client.
I really do need to apply all of that Carnegie stuff to blogging. Crap
Jackson,
I’ve just past my real estate licensing exam, with the state of the economy is now a good time try to sell homes?
Lana