McCain in the Lead
A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows John McCain with a narrow lead over both Democratic candidates:
McCain is statistically tied with Sen. Barack Obama, 44 percent to 42 percent, and ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton by 6 points, 46 percent to 40 percent. The poll’s margin of error was plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.
The poll also showed McCain with a 61 percent approval rating, a number higher than both Clinton’s and Obama’s in past polls. (A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll earlier this month measured Clinton’s approval rating at 52 percent and Obama’s at 58 percent.)
I’ll admit I was a little surprised by this. I expected McCain to be leading Clinton, but with all the positive press Obama has been getting I figured he would be on top of McCain.
I should not have been surprised, however. A Rasmussen poll from last week indicates Obama might not be quite as popular as conventional wisdom suggests:
Barack Obama has the same number who will definitely vote for him–34%. But, more people are committed to voting against him than McCain. Forty-three percent (43%) say they will definitely reject him at the ballot box. For 18%, their support depends on his opponent.
Given McCain’s independent streak, one would assume he could cut into that 18% as well. It’s also worth noting that much of Obama’s support comes from folks like myself–voters under 30 who are notorious for low turnout. Now perhaps Obama is the candidate who can get them to the polls, but he’d be crazy to count on it.
These polls are very early, but they do suggest that Saint Obama is not the unstoppable force many pundits seem to think. A quick look at the Electoral College map indicates we’re in for another tight election.
Cross posted at Appalachian Scribe
I think McCain is going to have to do a serious about-face on Iraq when it comes time for the general, if he expects to win.
What an absurd and desperate sounding post. Did you happen to notice that the 2 polls that were conducted around the same time from AP and CBS? One had Obama over MCain by 12, the other 10… you don’t see me doing hysterical posts about that. TheRCP “poll of polls” has Obama up by 3.7.
I disagree completely. McCain wins on foreign affairs and national security. If Barack is the nominee, and it looks like he is, the country will have a clear choice as far as Iraq is concerned.
Guys I can’t stand McCain, but I have been observing elections for the last twenty years, and I have to tell you, Obama will not win in November. January and February polls are meaningless. Heck, December polls had this as a Clinton vs Guiliani contest. There is a long way to go. In fact, I am pretty sure the eventual Dem nominee was ahead of Bush at this time in 2004 also.
William - As I said in the post, the value of such early polls is very questionable. I thought it worth pointing this poll out because I believe it reflects how the race is most likely to pan out–a very close race that McCain has an advantage in. A look at the electoral map indicates this, barring some unforeseen event. I don’t think it’s “desperate” or “hysterical” to point this out.
Glen, I agree. It is entirely possible McCain will win, although I doubt it. As a friend of mine told me,
Then there’s the issue of “the disappearing 10%” whenever a minority runs…
You haven’t seen the skeletons start to come ou of McCain’s closet yet. I have to wonder how anyone could possibly think Iraq is going to help McCain when 2/3 of Americans oppose the war.
Glen:
McCain wins on foreign affairs and national security.
In your mind, maybe, but I don’t think the American public agrees. Certainly not on the issue of Iraq, where McCain has campaigned on increasing troop levels there, while better than 2/3 of the American public wants out.
As for Obama, he has strong support from independents (and even a few Republicans), something neither Gore nor Kerry could claim. Not to mention the fact that McCain’s support just isn’t very strong within the GOP base. I’m not ready to hand Obama the presidency yet (in fact, I’m still not convinced he’ll win the Democratic nomination — a Clinton win in Ohio or especially Texas changes the landscape again), but I’m not ready to count him out, either.
One other thing you forget: McCain is a terrible campaigner, who only got the GOP nomination through a combination of luck, fortuitous timing, and an unusually weak field.
Take out the word Obama and replace it with McCain, and take out Gore or Kerry and insert Bush.
That might be important as far as raising money goes, but the GOP base will still fall in line, hold their nose and vote. Surely you don’t think they’ll support a Democrat.
Surely you don’t think they’ll support a Democrat.
Of course not! They’ll stay home in record numbers. Yay, team.
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Possibly.
Surely you don’t think they’ll support a Democrat.
JP beat me to it.
But there’s another factor. In the US, getting the support of your base only gets you so far. What’s more important is the median voter. In a pool of 100 voters, that 51st voter is the only one who matters. I could be wrong, but I suspect Obama has broader appeal with moderates, and they’re who you need in the general.
Right now you might be okay with that prediction. But between now and then, the GOP is going to make sure the American public not only views this guy as “to the left of Ted”, but also to the left of Bernie Sanders.
But between now and then, the GOP is going to make sure the American public not only views this guy as “to the left of Ted”, but also to the left of Bernie Sanders.
And you’re okay with that? It’s not truth or objectivity that matters, but who’s team wins?
Ask your pastor about this, Glen.
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JP, according to the rankings, Obama is the most liberal Senator in the US Senate ahead of Sanders. This is truth.
JP, according to the rankings, Obama is the most liberal Senator in the US Senate ahead of Sanders. This is truth.
No it’s not, it’s spin. Basically, those ratings are a bunch of crap, and politically convenient (for conservatives) crap at that. They just so happened to give John Kerry the same rating when he was running for president, a rating he’s never held or been close to before or since.
I doubt even very many rank-and-file conservatives truly believe Obama is more liberal than Kennedy or DiFi or Boxer or especially Feingold. “Most liberal Senator” is a useful narrative for them to toss around, but it simply doesn’t have much basis in reality.